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PlexusCall: Statistics, Decisions and Baseball
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12/12/2014
When: Friday, December 12, 2014
1-2pm ET

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PlexusCalls
Friday, December 12, 2014 1-2 PM Eastern Time

Statistics, Decisions and Baseball
Guests: Pasky Pascual and Chad Sarchio


MP3 File

 

Bayesball (pdf)

The availability of big data and mathematical models may be a boon to better understanding of probabilities. Pasky Pascual, a lawyer, scientists and Nationals fan who has studied decision making, applied Bayesian principles to baseball to illustrate that we have the tools to develop better predictions and decisions with an empirical foundation. Chad Sarchio is an experienced lawyer and baseball fan. Join this provocative discussion. 

Pasky Pascual is a scientist and lawyer who specializes in the intersection between his two domains. He has authored and co-authored numerous publications on how courts evaluate scientific evidence. He earned a bachelor’s degree in biology, a master’s in soil science and economics, and a J.D. with a specialty in environmental law. As the director for a government task force on computational models, he convened an interdisciplinary group of experts in statistics, science, law, and philosophy to produce a report on modeling published by the National Academy of Sciences. He was granted a science fellowship from the U.S. State Department to investigate the impact of climate change on coral reefs. He has taught modeling principles in the U.S., Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. His current research focuses on using Bayesian statistics to analyze "Big Data." To introduce these ideas to the general public, he recently published an op-ed piece on a Bayesian model he developed that predicts the outcome of baseball games. In his spare time, Pasky likes to write historical fiction and published "Under a Tropical Sun," a novel about America's colonial rule in the Philippines.

Chad T. Sarchio, a former federal prosecutor formerly with the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the District of Columbia, is now Drug Enforcement Administration’s Assistant Deputy Chief Counsel for International & Intelligence law, and Chief of its International Law Section. He has prosecuted hundreds of federal and local cases involving crimes ranging from homicide to fraud and public corruption, including successfully trying more than 70 jury and bench trials, conducting scores of grand jury investigations, and presenting numerous appellate briefs and arguments. He also worked as an investigative counsel during a Senate select investigation into governmental readiness and response to Hurricane Katrina. Mr. Sarchio began his career in the Army Judge Advocate General corps, assisting hundreds of soldiers and their family members at Fort Bragg, N.C. He investigated and negotiated more than $3 million in claims while deployed to the Balkans as the Senior Foreign Claims Commissioner for Bosnia, and served as Military Legal Counsel to the Army’s Auditor General. Currently a Lieutenant Colonel, he serves as Director of the Army Reserve’s Judicial Operations Support Team, and has represented Reserve soldiers in a broad array of proceedings. He teaches trial advocacy at both George Washington Law School and the Department of Justice’s National Advocacy Center, serves on the board of directors of the GW Law Alumni Association, and is an executive board member and past president of the Assistant U.S. Attorney’s Association for the District of Columbia. A New York Yankees fan by birthright, he has held season tickets for the Washington Nationals since baseball returned to our nation's capital, has come to tolerate the notion of compulsory bad hitting (see the American League's Designated Hitter rule), and has developed an ardent passion for and personal brand of NATITUDE!

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